Slow Growth for Mid-America Manufacturing

June 2025 Survey Highlights:
*The overall Mid-America Business Conditions Index declined for the month but remained above growth neutral for the sixth straight month.
*The June regional manufacturing employment index remained below growth neutral. 
Inflation continues to trend higher.
*On average, supply managers expect tariffs to push input prices up by 7.5% in the second half of 2025.  
*A high proportion of supply managers reported a balance between job openings and job applicants.
According to U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) data, the regional economy exported $32.1 billion in manufactured goods for the first four months of 2025, compared to $31.3 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 2.3% decline.
*In terms of export gainers for the first four months of 2025, North Dakota registered the top gain with a 29.7% addition, and South Dakota recorded the largest loss with a 20.4% reduction in exports of manufactured goods.
 

OMAHA, Neb. (July 1, 2025) — The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, moved above the 50.0 growth neutral threshold for a sixth straight month. 

Overall Index: The Business Conditions Index, which uses the identical methodology as the national Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral, declined to 50.7 from 51.0 in May.

“The Creighton survey continues to record job losses with accompanying higher wholesale inflation.  Supply managers remain concerned that rising tariffs will push inflation significantly higher. On average, supply managers expect input prices to climb by 7.5% in 2025,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business.

The Mid-America report is produced independently of the national ISM.

As indicated by a supply manager in the June survey, “We are starting to experience more notification on tariff increases and starting to see shortages of products.”

Employment: The June employment index was unchanged from May’s weak 49.4. “First quarter employment was pushed higher due to higher production in anticipation of the fallout from tariffs. However, readings from the last three months represented a return to manufacturing job losses in the region,” said Goss.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that the region shed 9,900 (-0.7%) manufacturing jobs over the past 12 months. The U.S. lost 88,000 (-0.7%) manufacturing jobs over the same period.

Comments from supply managers in June:

“Bird flu is still impacting eggs, liquid eggs, pricing, etc. Freight continues to increase.  Service levels are noticeably down and lowering expectations have been normalized from five years ago. Much more involved with managing vendors, service.”

“The county we are located in has a very low unemployment rate, less than 2%, and we have several large employers that pay well. Our business is slow or we would have a serious shortage of workers.”

"Tariffs drive up imported and domestic steel and aluminum prices.”

“While we are getting applications for positions, about half of them are from applicants wishing to work remotely, which has taken on a different connotation as time goes on. For some positions, such as sales, remote work is fine. That won't work for our current supply chain team – it is too collaborative and responsive.”

“Expect a significant increase in costs over the next two months.”

Wholesale Prices: The June price gauge climbed to 67.9 from 67.4 in May. “The regional inflation yardstick has moved into a range indicating that inflationary pressures are moving higher at the wholesale level. However, due to slowing regional and U.S. economies, I expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at either its July meeting on July 29-30 or its September 16-17 meetings,” said Goss.

On average supply managers expect tariffs to push input prices up by 7.5% in 2025.  

Confidence: Looking ahead six months, economic optimism, as captured by the June Business Confidence Index, increased to 50.0 from May’s 43.2. “Despite concerns regarding tariffs, supply managers continue to see improving economic conditions. One in four supply managers expect rising economic conditions for their firm over the next six months. This is up from one in five last month,” said Goss.

Inventories: The regional inventory index, reflecting levels of raw materials and supplies, fell to 46.9 from May’s 51.6. “Rapid expansions of inventories in the first quarter are now being offset by pullbacks in buildups,” said Goss. 

Trade: Recent uncertainty regarding tariffs and trade restrictions pushed new export orders lower for the last three months. New export orders slumped to 43.4 from 44.8 in May and 46.2 in April. As result of record imports for the first two months of 2025, supply managers pulled back on purchasing from abroad in March, April, May and June. The June import index increased to a still very weak reading of 30.0 from 29.8 in May and April’s record low of 12.5. 

According to U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) data, the regional economy exported $32.1 billion in manufactured goods for the first four months of 2025, compared to $31.3 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 2.3% decline. In terms of export gainers, North Dakota registered the top gain with a 29.7% addition, and South Dakota recorded the largest loss with a 20.4% reduction in exports of manufactured goods.   

Other survey components of the June Business Conditions Index were: new orders increased to 52.4 from 51.0 in May; the production or sales index sank to 48.5 from 49.4 in May; and the speed of deliveries of raw materials and supplies rose to 56.5 from May’s 53.7. Higher readings indicate slower deliveries and rising supply chain disruptions or delays. 

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in nine states since 1994 to produce leading economic indicators of the Mid-America economy. States included in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Below are the state reports:

Arkansas: The state’s June Business Conditions Index fell to 48.2 from 53.2 in May. Components from the June survey of supply managers were: new orders at 51.9, production or sales at 47.4; delivery lead time at 54.2; inventories at 44.8; and employment at 42.3. According to ITA data, the Arkansas manufacturing sector exported $1.8 billion in goods for the first four months of 2025, compared to $2.0 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 5.6% decline.

Iowa: The state’s Business Conditions Index for June declined to 48.0 from 49.9 in May. Components of the overall June index were: new orders at 51.9; production or sales at 47.4; delivery lead time at 54.2; employment at 41.9; and inventories at 44.8. According to ITA data, the Iowa manufacturing sector exported $5.0 billion in goods for the first four months of 2025, compared to $5.4 billion for the same period in 2024, for an 8.1% decline.

Kansas: The Kansas Business Conditions Index for June increased to 49.9 from 48.1 in May. Components of the leading economic indicators from the monthly survey of supply managers for June were: new orders at 52.3; production or sales at 48.5; delivery lead time at 56.0; employment at 47.3; and inventories at 45.6. According to ITA data, the Kansas manufacturing sector exported $4.0 billion in goods for the first four months of 2025, compared to $4.1 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 2.6% decline.

Minnesota: The June Business Conditions Index for Minnesota rose to 52.8 from May’s 52.3. Components of the overall June index were: new orders at 52.8; production or sales at 50.1; delivery lead time at 58.6; inventories at 46.9; and employment at 55.4. According to ITA data, the Minnesota manufacturing sector exported $7.8 billion in goods for the first four months of 2025, compared to $8.5 billion for the same period in 2024, for an 8.4% decline.

Missouri: The state’s June Business Conditions Index dropped to 50.8 from 53.4 in May. Components of the overall index from the survey of supply managers for June were: new orders at 52.4; production or sales at 48.9; delivery lead time at 56.8; inventories at 46.0; and employment at 49.7. According to ITA data, the Missouri manufacturing sector exported $5.7 billion in goods for the first four months of 2025, compared to $5.3 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 6.3% gain.

Nebraska: The state’s June Business Conditions Index climbed to 51.3 from May’s 48.6. Components of the index from the monthly survey of supply managers for June were: new orders at 52.5; production or sales at 49.2; delivery lead time at 57.3; inventories at 46.3; and employment at 46.3. According to ITA data, the Nebraska manufacturing sector exported $2.2 billion in goods for the first four months of 2025, compared to $2.4 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 6.4% decline.

North Dakota: The state’s Business Conditions Index advanced above growth neutral for a 12th consecutive month to 52.0 from 50.8 in May. Components of the overall index for June were: new orders at 52.7; production or sales at 49.6; delivery lead time at 57.9; employment at 53.2; and inventories at 46.6. According to ITA data, the North Dakota manufacturing sector exported $1.9 billion in goods for the first four months of 2025, compared to $1.5 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 29.7% gain.

Oklahoma: The state’s Business Conditions Index for June increased to 50.6, up slightly from May’s 50.5. Components of the overall June index were: new orders at 52.4; production or sales at 48.8; delivery lead time at 56.6; inventories at 45.9; and employment at 49.2. According to ITA data, the Oklahoma manufacturing sector exported $2.4 billion in goods for the first four months of 2025, compared to $2.2 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 6.6% gain.

South Dakota: The June Business Conditions Index for South Dakota slumped to 48.5 from 48.7 in May. Components of the overall June index were: new orders at 52.0; production or sales at 47.7; delivery lead time at 54.7; inventories at 45.0; and employment at 43.3. According to ITA data, the South Dakota manufacturing sector exported $0.5 billion in goods for the first four months of 2025, compared to $0.7 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 20.4% decline.

Survey results for the month of July will be released on August 1, 2025, the first business day of the month.