Rural Mainstreet Economy Expands Again in July

July 2025 Survey Results at-a-Glance:
*For the first time since July and August of 2023, the survey registered two consecutive months of above growth neutral readings.
*For the 14th time in the past 15 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral.
*On average, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to decline by 2.9% over the next 12 months.
*Lower farm commodity prices pushed bank loans to a record high.
*Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 23rd straight month.
*According to the data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first five months of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $5.3 billion in 2024 to $4.5 billion in 2025 for a decline of 14.8%.
*Mexico was the top destination for regional ag exports, accounting for 56.5% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.
 

OMAHA, Nebraska (July 17, 2025) — The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above the 50.0 growth neutral reading in July, marking the second time since July 2023 that the index has moved above growth neutral for two straight months, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The region’s overall reading for July slipped to 50.6 from June’s 51.9. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“This is the first time since July and August of 2023 that the survey has registered two consecutive months of above growth neutral readings,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

According to Jeff Bonnett, President of Havana National Bank in Havana, Ill., “Until ag commodity prices move to above breakeven, especially for corn and soybeans, I will continue in my bearish outlook for our 100% Ag dependent local economy here in West Central Illinois.”

This month, bankers were asked to rank the greatest threats to farm income for the next year. More than three of four, or 76.1%, named low farm commodity prices as the top threat, while 19.9%, or almost one of five, identified tariffs as the top risk for the farm economy over the next 12 months. The remaining 4.0% assessed rising input costs as the greatest hazard over the next 12 months.

 Other comments from bankers in July:

-Jim Eckert, Executive VP and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill. said, “Crops (corn and soybeans) in our area look great, but we are badly in need of rain. A few "pop-up" showers here and there, but no general rains since mid-June.”
-Brian Nicklason, CEO of Woodland Bank in Grand Rapids, Minn., said, “The impact of Minnesota's new Marijuana Laws is just now starting to take shape. We expect strong job growth in our local area which will lead to continued housing issues and daycare issues. But overall, a net positive for the local economy.”

Farming and ranch land prices: For the 14th time in the past 15 months, farmland prices slumped below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price increased slightly to a weak 47.9 from 40.9 in June. “Elevated interest rates, higher input costs and volatility from tariffs have put downward pressure on farmland prices. On average, bankers expect farmland prices to fall by 2.9% over the next 12 months,” said Goss.

According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first five months of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $5.3 billion in 2024 to $4.5 billion in 2025 for a decline of 14.8%. For the first five months of 2025, Mexico was the top destination for regional ag exports, accounting for 56.5% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.

Bank CEOs were asked about the expected impact from President Trump’s tariff actions.  Approximately four of 10 expected higher tariffs to result in retaliation among trading partners, thus lowering farm income. The remaining six of 10 indicated that it was too early to assess potential impacts of the President’s tariff negotiations. 

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index slumped to a very weak 16.7 from 22.7 in June. “This is the 23rd straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input costs, tighter credit conditions, low farm commodity prices and market volatility from tariffs are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Banking: The July loan volume index soared to a record high 87.5 from 73.1 in June. The checking deposit index increased to 45.8 from June’s 40.4. The index for certificates of deposits (CDs) and other savings instruments rose to 56.3 from 50.2. Federal Reserve interest rate policies have boosted CD purchases above growth neutral for 32 straight months.

Hiring: The new hiring index for July sank to 50.0 from June’s 52.0. Job gains for non-farm employers have been positive but soft for the last several months.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The July confidence index declined to 36.0 from June’s frail 37.0. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, pushed banker confidence lower,” said Goss.

Home and retail sales: Home sales weakened to 48.0 from June’s 51.9. Regional retail sales, much like national retail sales for July, were still fragile at 47.8 from 44.2. Much like the nation, housing indices are falling and retail sales are slumping.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.

Below are the state reports:

Colorado: The state’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) for July improved to 53.2 from 50.9 in June. The farmland and ranchland price index for July increased to 53.3 from June’s 42.0. The state’s new hiring index dipped to 50.8 from June’s 52.2. According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), Colorado exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first five months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, rose by $6.1 million for a 2.6% gain. South Africa has been the top destination for 2025 exports, accounting for 23.3% of 2025 Colorado agriculture and livestock exports.

Illinois: The state’s July Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) dropped to 51.4 from 52.7 in June. The farmland price index for July increased to 49.3 from 42.3 in June. The state’s new hiring index for July fell to 46.8 from 53.8 in June. According to trade data from ITA, Illinois exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first five months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, sank by $0.9 billion for a decline of 41.0%. Mexico was the top destination for state exports, accounting for 30.0% of 2025 Illinois agriculture and livestock exports.

Iowa: July’s RMI for the state declined to 49.7 from 51.0 in June. Iowa’s farmland price index for July increased to 46.3 from 39.3 in June. Iowa’s new hiring index for July dipped to 43.0 from 44.8 in June. According to trade data from ITA, Iowa exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first five months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, climbed by $89.5 million for an expansion of 12.0%. Mexico was the top destination for state exports, accounting for 74.5% of 2025 Iowa agriculture and livestock exports.

Kansas: The Kansas RMI for July dropped to 47.8 from June’s 49.1. The state’s farmland price index moved to 43.1 from 36.1 in June. The new hiring index for Kansas fell to 39.0 from 46.0 in June. According to trade data from ITA, Kansas exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first five months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, expanded by $19.9 million for a growth of 3.3%. Mexico was the top destination for state exports, accounting for 79.0% of 2025 Kansas agriculture and livestock exports.

Minnesota: The July RMI for Minnesota declined to 51.2 from 54.5 in June. Minnesota’s farmland price index increased to 49.6 from 45.2 in June. The new hiring index for July fell to 50.5 from 57.5 in June. According to trade data from ITA, Minnesota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first five months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, sank by $94.1 million for a decline of 20.9%. Mexico was the top destination for state exports, accounting for 37.0% of 2025 Minnesota agriculture and livestock exports.

Missouri: The RMI for Missouri declined to 49.0 from 50.3 in June. The farmland price index for July increased to 45.2 from June’s 38.2. The state’s new hiring gauge for July fell to 41.7 from June’s 48.7. According to trade data from ITA, Missouri exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first five months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, fell by $60.8 million for a decline of 16.0%. Mexico was the top destination for state exports, accounting for 86.0% of 2025 Missouri agriculture and livestock exports.

Nebraska: The Nebraska Rural Mainstreet Index for July declined to 51.1 from 52.4 in June. The state’s farmland price index for July increased to 48.8 from 41.8 in June. Nebraska’s new hiring index sank to 46.1 from June’s 53.1. According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), Nebraska exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first five months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, rose by $106.9 million for a 24.5% gain. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 67.4% of 2025 Nebraska agriculture and livestock exports.

North Dakota: The state’s overall RMI for July declined to 52.2 from June’s 53.5. The state’s farmland price index increased to 46.8 from June’s 43.6. The state’s new hiring index fell to 48.3 from 55.3 in June. According to trade data from ITA, North Dakota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first five months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, fell by $19.8 million for a decline of 5.0%. Mexico was the top destination for state exports, accounting for 51.5% of 2025 North Dakota agriculture and livestock exports.

South Dakota: The July RMI for South Dakota fell to 52.0 from 52.3 in June. The state’s farmland price index increased to 50.2 from 43.2 in June. South Dakota’s July new hiring index sank to 47.9 from June’s 54.9. According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), South Dakota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first five months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, rose by $11.1 million for a 20.2% gain. Mexico was the top destination for 2025, accounting for 77.4% of 2025 South Dakota agriculture and livestock exports.

Wyoming: The July overall RMI for Wyoming fell to 52.7 from 54.0 in June. The July farmland and ranchland price index increased to 51.4 from June’s 44.4. Wyoming’s new hiring index fell to 49.4 from 56.4 in June. According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), Wyoming exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first five months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, rose by $2.5 million for a 149.1% gain. Canada was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 64.5% of 2025 Wyoming agriculture and livestock exports.